Category Archives: Option Basics

Dow 15000

The Dow Jones Industrial Average goes over 15,000 for the first time on May 3rd, 2013 following a decent jobs report.

Dow 15000, 05-03-13

Associated Press Twitter account Hacked

The chart below is a two minute chart of the SPY on 04-23-2013. The Associated Press’s Twitter account got hacked and someone tweeted that the White House had been bombed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 145 points and recovered in about 7 minutes. The SPY is shown below, on a two minute chart the down move was over 30 standard deviations as shown on the red bar. This was an excellent example of the kind of market volatility that one tweet can produce, even though it turned out to be false.

SPY 04-23-13 AP Twitter hack (1)

Netflix Stock Post Earnings

The chart below is Netflix, NFLX, stock after their earnings report yesterday. The up move was over 7 standard deviations as shown on the red bars below the price chart. The line on the bottom is the ratio of the implied volatility to the statistical volatility which has dropped to 204.30 post earnings. We discussed NFLX on my radio show, Ken’s Bulls and Bears report with Jeffrey Dow Jones a couple of months ago.

NFLX 04-23-2013

Chart of the day IBM

Today’s drop in the price of IBM following a weaker than expected earnings report. Currently the down move is over eight standard deviations as shown on the red bar. The line below is the IV/SV ratio which is up to 208.65.

IBM 04-19-2013

Record Drop for Price of Gold

GLD 04-15-2012Chart showing yesterday’s drop in the price of gold. It was the largest drop in price ever in dollar terms. In percent terms the drop on 03-17-1980 was larger. Yesterday’s drop was over 9%. Measured in standard deviations it was a move of 6.62 standard deviations. With a normal probability distribution, 68% of the time price moves will be within one standard deviation, 95% of the time moves will be within two standard deviations and 99% of the time within three standard deviations. The red bars on the chart show the price moves measured in standard deviations and the lower line is the IV/SV ratio.

Skew - GLD - SPDR Gold Shares_window_screenshotSkew chart showing the implied volatility of gold (GLD) options after yesterday’s record day in dollar terms.

 

Covered Calls ~ Managing the Trade

If you’re thinking about using covered calls for income, you’ll want to consider how you’re going to manage your trades from the time you establish them until option expiration.

If you already hold the underlying stock or ETF, you’ll it’s only a matter of selecting the strike price and expiration of the call option that you wish to sell and entering your order. When you enter the order you are faced with the decision of what order type to use. When selling calls most traders will choose between a market and a limit order. You may have read elsewhere that you should only use a limit order when trading options. I don’t agree with that and have found that I get excellent executions with market orders as long as the stock is a very liquid penny pilot issue. The most liquid ETFs have excellent execution on market orders and there are times when a market order is better, such as a rapidly falling price, where you’d if your limit wasn’t going to get hit, you’d have to go through the process of canceling and replacing and if the underlying has fallen you’ll have to settle for a lower price than you would have with a market order. If the stock or ETF that you’re selling the call option on is not very liquid and has wide bid ask spreads, don’t use a market order, use a limit and place it about halfway between the bid and the ask then give it time to get filled. The thinner the trading is, the more patient you have to be with the order getting filled.

If you don’t already own the position in the underlying you have some more choices. One choice is to sell a cash secured put, then wait until you get assigned and begin the call writing process. Another choice is to use a buy write ticket. With a buy-write ticket, you enter a simultaneous order to buy the stock and sell the call option at a net debit. So, if the stock is trading at $25 and the option is selling for $1, you’d enter an order for a net debit of $24. You can also use market orders with buy-write tickets and they’ll work as long as the underlying is very liquid. If the underlying is not very liquid and has wide spreads, use a limit order for sure.  If you don’t want to use a buy write, then first you purchase the underlying security, then sell the call option. If you like to trade a little bit, to try to enhance returns, you can leg into the position, by buying the stock, letting it run up, and then selling the call if the stock begins to drop.

Once you have a covered call position established two things can happen at expiration, either the price of the underlying is above or below the strike price, you either get called or the option expires worthless. If you’re option is in the money prior to expiration and you decide you want to keep the stock, you’ll have to buy the calls back, then sell more at another expiration date. If you roll the calls for a credit, that is you sell them to open for more than you bought to close, you can keep rolling them until they expire worthless and generate a profit. You’ll also need to watch out for your dividend ex-dates. If your option is in the money prior to the ex-date and the expiration date is close by, there is a very high probability that you’ll get called. If you want to hold the stock and collect the dividend, you’ll need to roll for a credit prior to the dividend ex-date instead of waiting for the expiration date. If you decide you want to sell the stock prior to the call option expiring you’ll probably want to buy the option back, and then sell the stock. Depending on your level of option approval at your brokerage, you may have to buy the call back first. If your approval level is high enough for naked calls you’ll need to consider if you want to assume the risk of an uncovered call position.

Have a follow up plan in place before you open the position. Know your dividend dates and manage your positions accordingly.

The Long Straddle and the Fiscal Cliff

The long straddle is a strategy that can be employed prior to the release of a significant news announcement. One time might be when government economic reports like the GDP or unemployment numbers are about to be released.

The way the strategy works is pretty simple. We know that there is going to be some news that could affect the market. We don’t know what’s in the news or how the market will react. To be prepared for a big market move in either direction we decide to purchase a long straddle on the SPY which is the ETF that represents the S&P 500 index.

To purchase a straddle you buy an equal number of calls and puts at the same strike price which is at the money. At the time of this writing the SPY is at 140.96 so I have illustrated a 141 straddle. I am showing the Jan 19th expiration. The straddle will cost $5.00 to purchase and that is the maximum risk. If held until expiration the break even points are $146 and $136.

With the fiscal cliff talks going on congress could make an announcement anytime. Right now the house is planning to convene on Sunday, so they could have an announcement prior to the market open on Monday. A long straddle purchased before the weekend could be profitable if the market has a big gap open on Monday after congress meets.

If the straddle is held longer than a couple of days, the investor can employ a “gamma scalping” strategy to offset the option decay as measured by the position’s theta.

Below is an illustration of the P&L graph for the SPY Jan 19, 141 straddle.

SPY ATM straddle 12-28-12

The Put Call Ratio

Put Call Ratio

The put call ratio can be used to measure market sentiment. It is frequently used as a contrarian indicator. The way it’s calculated is very simple it’s just the number of puts traded divided by the number of calls traded. You’ll see it quoted a couple of different ways, one is the open interest or OI ratio and the other is volume or VOL. The OI ratio uses the open interest on the option contract and the VOL measure uses the volume over a given time frame.

The dollar weighted put-call ratio is the sum of the put volume times the put price divided by the sum of the call volume times the call price.

Contrarians use the put call ratio under the assumption that the public is usually wrong. So when the public is buying a lot of calls, they’ll short the stock and when the public is buying a lot of puts, they’ll buy the stock.

As with any strategy it won’t work 100% of the time and there have been many times when there has been heavy call buying on a stock and the stock ends up getting taken over. A takeover candidate is not a suitable short sell candidate.

Below is a chart of the AGG ETF as of 11-9-2012,  the IShares Core Total US Bond Index. The red line below shows the put call OI ratio at 226.00.

Google’s Third Quarter Earnings

Google’s third quarter earnings were released early today. It was a big miss for Google on profits. The stock opened today at $755.54, hit a high of $759.42, then dropped all the way to a low of $676.00 before bouncing a little and closing at $695.00. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Below is a chart showing the big price move measured in standard deviations. Today’s drop was over eight standard deviations!

 

 

Earnings Dual Calendar Spread

Earnings Dual Calendar

The dual calendar spread consists of a put calendar spread and a call calendar spread. It can be put on for a net credit or a net debit. A debit dual calendar spread can be an effective strategy around earnings time. We’ll call it an earnings dual calendar and here’s how it works. We want to be long the options that are in the reporting month because we are forecasting a rise in implied volatility in the option price until the report comes out, and then the implied volatility will fall rapidly. We’ll be short the contracts that will expire before the earnings release because we know that their implied volatility will drop with their expiration date. He’s an actual example from the time of this writing. This is not a trade recommendation. STI, Sun Trust Bank will report earnings on Monday October 22nd, 2012. We anticipate that the implied volatility of the November options will remain elevated until the earnings announcement. We forecast that the implied volatility of the October options that expire on October 20th, before the earnings announcement will collapse by the expiration date. We can put this trade on in the first week of October and plan to hold it until the October expiration on October 20th. Here are some of the key data points;

Size        Exp                Strike           Put/Call         Price      IV                   Theta              Delta

+1          Nov 17           28                 Put                   0.93       31.27%         -1.34              -39.72

+1           Nov 17           29                Call                  1.00        29.45%         -1.32               47.22

-1            Oct 20             28                Put                 -0.39      27.75%          +1.85               34.31

-1            Oct 20              29               Call                 -0.46      25.52%           +1.85              -41.91

So, the net debit is $108 which is also the maximum risk. For a ten contract position that would be $1080. The theta is $1.01 which means that for each contract you’ll earn the decay of $1.01 per day, for a ten contract position that amounts to just over $10 per day in option decay. The net delta is -0.10 which is essentially delta neutral. The plan is to close the position on the day of the first expiration before the earnings come out for a net debit greater than $1.08. If the underlying makes a substantial price movement the position will take on some delta and some form of a gamma scalping strategy can be applied to make the position delta neutral again.

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