Option Trading Strategy Bias
Posted by sellacalloption
One of the keys to success in trading options or in using options to enhance return on a portfolio is have some flexibility in your strategy selection so you can adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. I have talked with many traders over the years that have a strategy bias and they get good results for awhile only to eventually experience a period where they have heavy losses and have a substantial drawdown of capital.
What strategy bias means is that is that the trader will learn one strategy and use it on a regular basis regardless of market conditions. A strategy like the iron condor is a good example. People learn about the iron condor, understand that it can have a high probability of success, but may not have much experience with dynamic delta hedging and learn the hard way that iron condors also have a poor risk/reward ratio.
The market goes through cycles knows as “regime changes” where the market moves from a period of relative quiet, through a period of high volatility. Iron condor traders can have losses when the market moves from low volatility to high volatility. In 2008 when the volatility spiked to extreme levels iron condor positions would have hit their maximum loss.
If you are forecasting rising volatility, you’d want to consider trade like a long straddle. Long straddles can be effective when there is a know event approaching that could move the market. On Thursday May 31st the SPY closed at $131.47. The monthly jobs report was released pre-market on Friday June 1st and the SPY opened at $129.41 and hit a low of $128.16. A long straddle bought before the close on Thursday could have produced some nice profits and we knew the jobs report was coming. An iron condor held through that would have had an adverse movement.
To be successful over time, master several different strategies and learn how to employ them in changing market conditions.